Pundits are Wrong: More Edwards's supporters will favor Clinton
Just moments after Edwards announced his decision to step down from the Democratic presidential nomination race pundits began theorizing on the direction his wave of supporters might take. Early indications are that the punditocracy, so intent on controlling the direction of the elections, believes his supporters are more likely to move towards Obama than Clinton. "The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama will pick up maybe 60 percent of them, and in some places, that makes a huge difference," former presidential adviser David Gergen said.
Pundits are so often wrong; I wonder why anyone listens to them anymore. After all, they missed the fact that Bush would become the most reviled president [sic] in history, while we at the CLG told them that from day one. Most missed that the war was being waged on false pretences and that we would find that out, shortly thereafter, while we told them so from the beginning. Most also failed to see that Rudy Giuliani would never make it as a Republican presidential candidate. We didnít predict that one, as itís hard to tell which fanatic will appeal to this rather mixed bag of anti-evolutionist, Jesus-loving, compassionate conservative, warmongering party loyalists.
So why would we believe them now?
Quite to the contrary, it is demonstrable that, like it or not, the supporters of Edwards will lean to Hillary Clinton. After all, Edwards has scored less of the African American voters than she has. Most of his supporters are white and working-class. These are the Democratic rank-and-file that by and large have supported either Clinton or Edwards.
Regardless of who you think is responsible-the Clintons, Obama's campaign, the media, or all of the above-after the divide that resulted in the South Carolina landslide, Obama's support now comes from the African American community and the young and otherwise independent new voters who have had little involvement with the political process before now. Florida's straw poll, while not indicative of a completely fought out election, is nevertheless an index of the way the political landscape is shaping up after South Carolina.
Edwards's supporters are more like Clinton's than Obama's.
Hoping for a spot either on the ticket or in the administration of the next president, Edwards may very well wait to endorse when he finds out who may be the likely winner-until after next Tuesday that is. In any case, his endorsement may sway some of his erstwhile supporters, but not all. "The line it is drawn and the curse it is cast," but the first will not be last-at least not now.
Rec, The Rec Report
Michael D. Rectenwald, Ph.D.
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